One Year to the Midterms: Time for Trump to Get Serious

With the midterm elections only one year away, the political clock around Donald Trump has begun to accelerate. This is the point in every presidency when the early months of agenda-setting inevitably give way to the scrutiny, pressure, and judgment that come with the midterm cycle. Historically, the one-year mark is when the political environment becomes less forgiving: economic trends solidify, voter expectations sharpen, and every presidential decision is viewed through the prism of the upcoming election. For Trump, the next twelve months will not simply be about governing—they will be a real-time assessment of how the country feels about his leadership so far.

Midterms carry enormous consequences. They determine control of the House, one-third of the Senate, and a wide array of state-level offices that shape everything from education to criminal justice. In the 2026 elections, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will be contested, and approximately one-third of the U.S. Senate seats will also be on the ballot. These contests aren’t just isolated races—they function as a national barometer, capturing how voters feel about the economy, immigration, foreign policy, and the broader direction of the country. For Trump, the results will dictate whether his legislative priorities gain traction or stall, and whether Congress becomes a partner or a counter-weight for the remainder of his term.

Political analysts observing the landscape note several areas that will likely shape public perception over the next year. Immigration is poised to be one of the defining issues, and Trump enters this midterm stretch carrying both support for a tougher stance and criticism that he has, at times, gone too far. Critics argue that some of his rhetoric and enforcement decisions have appeared overly broad or heavy-handed.

Another layer of complexity is emerging in how the Hispanic/Latino voter bloc views Trump. Recent N.Y. Post commentary observes that while Trump “hasn’t lost Hispanic voters yet — but the clock is ticking,” other data reveal a dramatic decline in his standing among Latino voters. One CNN analysis noted that on immigration, Trump is now 38 points underwater among Latinos—a sharp swing from a much smaller deficit in 2024. Polls show his overall net approval among this demographic has plunged significantly. These shifts are already manifesting in state and local races, with Latino-heavy areas showing large swings away from Republican candidates. Given the importance of Latino voters to the 2024 election outcome, this reversal may prove consequential in 2026.

Affordability is another issue that analysts believe will shape the midterm atmosphere. Across the country, voters continue to feel the strain of high housing costs, elevated interest rates, and the lingering effects of inflation on everyday expenses. Commentators point out that any administration entering a midterm year must show that it recognizes these pressures and can articulate how its policies are addressing them. For Trump, the ability to speak directly to concerns over groceries, rent, gas prices, and the general cost of living will play a significant role in how households evaluate his leadership. Midterms often hinge not only on economic data but on whether families feel their financial outlook is improving or stagnating.

These issues — along with perceptions of message consistency, governing stability, and the handling of high-visibility national concerns — will converge in the months leading up to November 2026. Taken together, the next year represents a defining stretch for Trump. While midterms are often shaped in part by circumstances beyond any president’s control, they also reflect how voters interpret leadership, tone, and priorities. As the calendar moves closer to next November, every choice made by the administration will be filtered through the question that midterms always ask: is the country satisfied with the direction it is headed?

Lou Shapiro is a criminal defense attorney-certified specialist and legal analyst, but most importantly, makes the end-of-shul announcements at Adas Torah. He can be reached at LouisJShapiro@gmail.com.